NOTE: if you don't want to read the following prose and just want to see the numbers, you'll find my graph at the bottom of the blog entry.
South Bay real estate sales have been painfully hot over the last 30 days, with Manhattan Beach's 34* sold single family homes, representing over $56,000,000 in inventory, reigning king in the three beach cities that also includes Hermosa Beach and Redondo Beach.
Looking at the numbers, it's clear that the Manhattan Beach real estate market is in a league of its own. From first hand experience, we represented three buyers during this sample period and each of our presented offers was met by multiple buyers vying for the same property. Real estate blogs, news papers and financial experts tell the country that we're in a buyer's market—not in Manhattan Beach. Homes that are priced correctly, have updates and are in a "B" location or better are selling. I don't know if this will become an ongoing market trend, or if we're experiencing an anomaly based on pent-up demand, time will tell.
For now, it's war! The buyer who is willing to fight through the multiple offer battle and put together the most compelling offer wins.
Our recommendation if you are looking to purchase a home in Manhattan Beach
First and most importantly, only your agent can give you a true picture of the steps that you'll need to take to get the home you're going after. Sites like Redfin, Zillow, Turlia and others never take into account the sophistication of miro-markets like Manhattan Beach, especially homes West of Sepulveda.
Even if you are a professional negotiator by trade, real estate sales represents a unique and emotional path from offer to acceptance. Trust your agent to decipher the seller's motivation, gauge the overall interest in your subject property, and best case selling price. Unless a home has been on the market for 100's of days, forget the "lowball" offer, it probably won't work for you. In fact, many top agents refuse to put a lowball offer out as it usually upsets a seller and can damage an agents reputation within the real estate community, definitely a slippery slop on all fronts.
What's the difference between a Pending Sale and Backup offer?
Sorry, there's no simple answer here. From a 5,000 foot perspective, the pending sale is considered to be a little bit more solid, more of a sure thing. When an agent and seller are soliciting a backup offer, they're either concerned that their buyer may not be able to preform on their purchase, or they're simply playing it safe and trying to make sure that if their current deal goes south, that there's a backup deal ready to slide into the first position. Considering that over 25% of all deals fall apart for one reason of another, soliciting backup offers is a pretty prudent path for many home sellers. If there's a home you really like that shows as being in Backup Offer status, have your agent dig into the particulars to see if it's worth puting something down in writing.
Interpretation
It's way too early to call the market bottom, but the indicators are sure there. It's also interesting to note that the dramatic rise in activity fits the South Bay's normal, annual sales cycle, which accelerates in February and then peaks towards July. We don't anticipate housing prices going up dramatically, but the multiple offers we've been seeing will definitely push the overall market towards larger numbers. On the other side of the sales increase are the homes that are overpriced and sitting. More common than not, this group of sellers purchased at the peak of the market between 2006 and 2007, and are now underwater on their home's value. If the majority of these sellers accept a financial loss in equity or through a short sale, we'd see more sales at prices that could slightly reduce the comparables. On the REO front, homes like 660 33rd and 1026 Duncan are seeing loads of activity and the selling banks are looking for top selling dollars. Word on the street is that 660 33rd sold for well over $2,000,000 and had multiple, super qualified offers.
Because the economy is not stable, and won't be for years to come, real estate sales will continue to be astronomically influenced by the daily news of the world. Commercial real estate, a double-dip recession, and other financial events that could easily become more than blips on the economic radar need to be watched closely.
*there are several additional home sales, including 660 33rd, that sold during this period. However, as they are still represented at Active on the MLS, I have not included them within my analysis.



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